Validating the upside
and quantifying the risks
Validating key sporting and commercial assumptions in a long term business plan to deliver future growth to a high profile Premier League football club
Challenge
An institutional investor needed to validate the assumptions that underpinned a detailed business plan for a Premier League football club, projecting the club’s growth post-acquisition.
Solution
We identified and analysed the key assumptions underpinning the club’s growth projections post-acquisition.
Using our Intelligence Engine, proprietary performance models and publicly available data, we were able to efficiently and robustly model the likely performance impact of planned additional spend post-acquisition. Benchmarking the business plan’s growth assumptions alongside both historic rates of inflation in wage and transfer spend across the league and the outlook in the media rights and commercial landscape.
In addition, we conducted an independent player valuation exercise to validate and test assumptions around assumed transfer income and the likely impact on compliance with Financial Fair Play.
Impact
Our partners were able to make an informed judgement on the investment case for the acquisition of the club, in the context of their objectives. They ultimately decided not to invest in the club.
