Using data
to upset the odds
How data helped the International Team get close to pulling off one of sport’s biggest upsets.
Challenge
The average world ranking of the International team was 41, while the average ranking of players on team USA was 12. Team USA consisted of half the world’s top 10 and half of the world’s top 20 players, while the International team had no players inside the world’s top 10 and only 2 inside the world’s top 20. Could we find a way for the International Team to compete despite the obvious imbalance.
Solution
We identified the foursomes and the fourballs as a key opportunity to create a competitive edge for the International team. Traditionally, pairings have been based on shared nationalities, player preferences or perceived personality ‘fit’. We recognised an opportunity to take a more scientific approach to matching players based on their strengths and suitability to the format and their playing partner.
Through applying our performance models, assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each individual player, and their compatibility stylistically we were able to simulate the outcome of all possible pairing combinations across both foursomes and fourball formats. This enabled us to provide the captain, Ernie Els, with the pairings that would give the International team the best chance of success.
The robustness of our approach enabled the captain to confidently communicate the pairings to the team, who were all bought into the approach.
Impact
The International Team won the team matches overall, taking a 10-8 lead into the final day of singles having had particular success in the four balls, taking 6.5 points out of a possible 9. While they lost the President’s Cup 16-14 after the singles, the contest was closer than it had any right to be given the gulf in quality of the teams.
“If you compare our team on paper with other teams in other sports, you would have laughed us out of the building. But we gave it a hell of a go and we came mightily close to winning and upsetting one of the greatest golf teams of all time. … It didn’t quite work out, but we came damn close.”
